Size, Value, and Momentum in International Stock Returns
In the four regions (North America, Europe, Japan, and Asia Pacific) we examine, there are value premiums in average stock returns that, except for Japan, decrease with size. Except for Japan, there is return momentum everywhere, and spreads in average momentum returns also decrease from smaller to bigger stocks. We test whether empirical asset pricing models capture the value and momentum patterns in international average returns and whether asset pricing seems to be integrated across the four regions. Integrated pricing across regions does not get strong support in our tests. For three regions (North America, Europe, and Japan) local models that use local explanatory returns provide passable descriptions of local average returns for portfolios formed on size and value versus growth. Even local models are less successful in tests on portfolios formed on size and momentum.
By Eugene F. Fama, Ph.D. and Kenneth R. French, Ph.D.*, June 2011
*Booth School of Business, University of Chicago (Fama) and Amos Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College (French).
The Interaction of Value and Momentum Strategies
Value and momentum strategies both have demonstrated power to predict the cross- section of stock returns, but are these strategies related? Measures of momentum and value are negatively correlated across stocks, yet each is positively related to the cross-section of average stock returns. We examine whether the marginal power of value or momentum differs depending upon the level of the other variable. Value strategies work, in general, but are strongest among low-momentum (loser) stocks and weakest among high-momentum (winner) stocks. The momentum strategy works, in general, but is particularly strong among low-value (expensive) stocks. These results hold despite finding comparable spreads in value measures among stocks with different levels of momentum and comparable spreads in the momentum measure among stocks with different levels of value. Any explanation for why value and momentum work must explain this interaction.
All photography by Jared Chambers